I'm a ward boss
Now that Trouble Sells has become one of the top-rated sites for information about Paul Tsongas — and even made a grown man weep by imparting that information — I feel it is time to return to my beloved role as trusted family advisor on that important contest, the 2004 presidential election.
The 2004 is a strange election. I don’t pretend to understand the Twenty-First Century any more than I understood the Twentieth or any of the others. In fact, I pretend to understand the Twentieth the best. But I would like to point out that in 2000, the last contest of that century, many Americans were unable to distinguish effectively between the futures offered by Gore and Bush — a view exploited and encouraged by Ralph Nader, who until that point in his career had been against the glib ignorance of facts in matters of corporate corruption and political process. And when a few polls showed a Bradley/Bush matchup would result in a Democratic win but a Gore/Bush competition was too close to call, Democratic voters were unconcerned and stayed the course.
Now, poll-obsessed Democrats flip-flop their support on a weekly basis among some truly uninspiring candidates. An “air of inevitability” surrounds whoever is unfortunate enough to be in first place, until the other guys pull him back into the mire. Then someone else pops up, a little more coated in offal than he was before.
The problem, as I see it, is not just voter ignorance — it’s the “greater fool” theory that worked so disastrously (no doubt for these same people) in the market downturn of recent memory. The strategy seems to be that I’m picking a candidate not because I like or support him, but because I’m betting some other voter, in a later primary, will like and support him. In fact, I might personally prefer a different candidate, but since I’m smarter than the average person, I won’t vote for my candidate, because I can’t expect other people to be as enlightened.
This kind of second-guessing is not any more likely to result in a strong candidate than actually voting for who you like, but it is more likely to result in a candidate you don’t like. In fact, it’s my suggestion that winning primaries — and especially caucuses — requires different skills than winning the election. This is especially true when there are so many players in the primaries but not in the election. Good district organizing, preventing the other guy’s turnout, and finding ways to undermine his positions will win primaries. But that isn’t the same as connecting with voters, or persuading them you can help them. And when you run against an incumbent, which Bush is by the way, you can’t rely solely on organizing and dirty tricks. The incumbent has more — and not only that, but he can look busy in his office while others use them.
Before Iowa, few people in America said Kerry was their top choice. He ran a good organization there while Gephardt and Dean were busy killing each other. I’m unconvinced this means he is prepared to be the bearer of our standard. (I think it’s also significant that Edwards was pretty close to Kerry in Iowa, but suffered a rather significant defeat in New Hampshire. It seems to me that, after Iowa, if you liked Edwards you knew your guy had as much of a chance as Kerry. But the truth, I think, is that no one really liked either of them, so our colleagues in New Hampshire proceeded to vote for the one who was “ahead.”)
As you know, I have not made a prediction for a winner of either the Democratic nomination or the general election. However, in my flippant way I did make three predictions of Obvious Losers. My scorecard so far:
- Gephardt. Right about that one.
- Lieberman. Will you be surprised when I’m right here too?
- Kerry. Yes, I picked him as an Obvious Loser. Unfortunately, I said he would never be president, not that he would necessarily lose the nomination. So you people are in trouble if you keep voting for him and I’m right.
People are overthinking “electable.” It isn’t supposed to mean “the candidate I assume other people support.” Backing the one you like is going to be okay. Don’t worry, if it turns out not to be, I’ll tell you.
by Jack, January 29, 2004 2:33 AM | More from Election 2004 | More from The Damned Human Race
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